Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are widely used to compute representations of node pairs for downstream tasks such as link prediction. Yet, theoretical understanding of their expressive power has focused almost entirely on graph-level representations. In this work, we shift the focus to links and provide the first comprehensive study of GNN expressiveness in link representation. We introduce a unifying framework, the kϕ-kρ-mframework, that subsumes existing messagepassing link models and enables formal expressiveness comparisons. Using this framework, we derive a hierarchy of state-of-the-art methods and offer theoretical tools to analyze future architectures. To complement our analysis, we propose a synthetic evaluation protocol comprising the first benchmark specifically designed to assess link-level expressiveness. Finally, we ask: does expressiveness matter in practice? We use a graph symmetry metric that quantifies the difficulty of distinguishing links and show that while expressive models may underperform on standard benchmarks, they significantly outperform simpler ones as symmetry increases, highlighting the need for dataset-aware model selection.

Reverse-Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization has emerged to be a predominant technique to enhance policy optimization in reinforcement learning (RL) and reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF), which forces the learned policy to stay close to a reference policy. While the effectiveness of KL-regularization has been empirically demonstrated in various practical scenarios, current theoretical analyses of KL-regularized RLHF still yield the same O(1/ϵ2) sample complexity as ones without KL-regularization. To understand the fundamental distinction between objectives with KL-regularization and ones without KLregularization, we are the first to theoretically demonstrate the power of KLregularization by providing a sharp analysis for KL-regularized contextual bandits and RLHF, revealing an O(1/ϵ) sample complexity when ϵ is sufficiently small. We also prove matching lower bounds for both settings. More specifically, we study how the coverage of the reference policy affects the sample complexity of KL-regularized online contextual bandits and RLHF. We show that with sufficient coverage from the reference policy, a simple two-stage mixed sampling algorithm can achieve an O(1/ϵ) sample complexity with only an additive dependence on the coverage coefficient, thus proving the benefits of online data even without explicit exploration. Our results provide a comprehensive understanding of the roles of KL-regularization and data coverage in online decision making, shedding light on the design of more efficient algorithms.

We study the sample complexity of Bayesian recovery for solving inverse problems with general prior, forward operator and noise distributions. We consider posterior sampling according to an approximate prior P, and establish sufficient conditions for stable and accurate recovery with high probability. Our main result is a non-asymptotic bound that shows that the sample complexity depends on (i) the intrinsic complexity of P, quantified by its approximate covering number, and (ii) concentration bounds for the forward operator and noise distributions. As a key application, we specialize to generative priors, where P is the pushforward of a latent distribution via a Deep Neural Network (DNN). We show that the sample complexity scales log-linearly with the latent dimension k, thus establishing the efficacy of DNN-based priors. Generalizing existing results on deterministic (i.e., non-Bayesian) recovery for the important problem of random sampling with an orthogonal matrix U, we show how the sample complexity is determined by the coherence of U with respect to the support of P. Hence, we establish that coherence plays a fundamental role in Bayesian recovery as well. Overall, our framework unifies and extends prior work, providing rigorous guarantees for the sample complexity of solving Bayesian inverse problems with arbitrary distributions.

We study the inductive biases of diffusion models with a conditioning-variable, which have seen widespread application as both text-conditioned generative image models and observationconditioned continuous control policies. We observe that when these models are queried conditionally, their generations consistently deviate from the idealized "denoising" process upon which diffusion models are formulated, inducing disagreement between popular sampling algorithms (e.g.

Imitation learning seeks to estimate policies reflecting the values of demonstrated behaviors. Prevalent approaches learn to match or exceed the demonstrator's performance in expectation without knowing the demonstrator's reward function. Unfortunately, this does not induce pluralistic imitators that learn to support distinct demonstrations.

We propose a framework for learning maps between probability distributions that broadly generalizes the time dynamics of flow and diffusion models. To enable this, we generalize stochastic interpolants by replacing the scalar time variable with vectors, matrices, or linear operators, allowing us to bridge probability distributions across multiple dimensional spaces. This approach enables the construction of versatile generative models capable of fulfilling multiple tasks without task-specific training. Our operator-based interpolants not only provide a unifying theoretical perspective for existing generative models but also extend their capabilities. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate the zero-shot efficacy of our method on conditional generation and inpainting, fine-tuning and posterior sampling, and multiscale modeling, suggesting its potential as a generic task-agnostic alternative to specialized models.

Conformal prediction methods enjoy strong theoretical and empirical predictive inference performance, provided the data is exchangeable, and predictors are trained in a memoryless fashion. However, these assumptions and constraints are impractical in many real-data settings, such as time series (where temporal dependence violates exchangeability, and where memoryless predictors will inevitably have poor predictive accuracy). Recent work shows that the split conformal prediction method is robust to these issues of memory-based predictors and deviations from exchangeability that are common features of time-series data. However, since using sample splitting can lead to lower accuracy, this motivates asking whether other predictive inference methods (that do not rely on data splitting) could also be reliably used in the time series setting. In this work, we show that the vanilla leave-one-out jackknife can suffer an arbitrary loss of coverage even in canonical time series models with mild temporal dependence. As a remedy, we propose a careful modification tailored to such settings, which we term the \emph{leave-a-window-out} (LWO) method, and show that it can achieve valid coverage provided that the model-fitting procedure satisfies mild stability properties. Our proofs are based on quantifying the degree to which the data departs from \emph{cyclic exchangeability}, and we introduce new coefficients to measure the extent of this departure. Experiments on time series data demonstrate that our LWO method often enjoys valid coverage when the vanilla jackknife fails to cover, while producing much narrower intervals than split conformal prediction.

We investigate the connection between Gaussian processes and Gaussian random elements in reproducing kernel Banach spaces. We show that the covariance operator of a weak second-order Radon probability measure on such a space is uniquely determined by a positive definite function. In the Gaussian case, we characterize those positive definite functions that arise from covariance operators in terms of $γ$-radonifying operators. Building on these results, we extend the classical Driscoll theorem to the Banach space setting.

The Volterra signature extends the classical path signature by incorporating general matrix-valued kernel into its iterated integral structure, yielding a flexible notion of memory for time series. Its components can be viewed as successive Picard iterates of linear controlled Volterra equations, making their exact computation of additional mathematical interest. However, the kernel introduces substantial algorithmic challenges. We provide a resolution by first decomposing the Chen-type convolution relation established in [13] into analytic and arithmetic parts, and then introducing several efficient algorithms: a general approximative scheme with quadratic complexity O(J2) in the number of time steps J, an FFT-based acceleration with complexity O(J logJ) for convolution kernels on uniform grids, and an exact recursion with complexity O(JR2) for kernels admitting a state-space representation of dimension R; retaining standard signature complexity in the path dimension and truncation level N. We further show that the number of factors in matrix-valued kernels of the form K(t,s) = P p kp(t s)Ap do not increase the asymptotic complexity in J and N. Finally, we derive a finite-difference predictor-corrector scheme for the associated Volterra signature kernel. All algorithms are implemented in the publicly available JAX-based package tensordev.

Federated Learning is a leading framework for training ML and AI models collaboratively across numerous user devices or databases. We study the trade-offs among estimation accuracy, privacy constraints, and communication cost for differentially private (DP) federated M estimation. The two standard methods in the literature are FedAvg, which may suffer from high federation bias, and FedSGD, which can incur high communication cost. Aimed at improving accuracy at a reduced communication cost, we propose FedHybrid, which uses FedSGD starting with an improved initialization by the FedAvg estimator. We propose FedNewton, which averages local Newton iterations to reduce bias in FedAvg, achieving an estimation accuracy comparable to FedSGD with much fewer communication rounds when the number of clients grows sufficiently slowly. We establish finite sample upper bounds on the mean-squared error rates of the DP versions of these estimators as functions of the number of clients, local sample sizes, privacy budget, and number of iterations. We further derive a minimax lower bound on the MSE of any iterative private federated procedure that provides a benchmark to assess the optimality gap of these methods. We numerically evaluate our methods for training a logistic regression and a neural network on the computer vision datasets MNIST and CIFAR-10.